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This 1-day Groundwater Modelling Uncertainty Workshop, hosted by the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training (NCGRT), will explore the issue of model predictive uncertainty and how to calculate it.
Although the focus will be on groundwater modelling, the concepts that will be discussed are applicable to decision-support environmental modelling in general. It marks the beginning of an ambitious new industry-sponsored project (see details below) which attempts to lift the bar of decision-support modelling.
Analysis of uncertainty and assessment of risk is integral to decision-support modelling. This interactive workshop will discuss software and methodologies that can evaluate the uncertainties of predictions made by environmental models, both before and after they have been calibrated. It will also address the issue of how complex a model actually needs to be in order to provide adequate decision support, and how its specifications should reflect availability (or lack of availability) of data. Examples will be provided.
Presenters from government, academia, and industry will discuss decision-support modelling from their perspectives, including what they see as its current strengths and weaknesses. International experts on model uncertainty quantification, including John Doherty (author of PEST), Jeremy White (author of PEST++) and Ty Ferre (The the University of Arizona and 2017 Darcy Lecturer) will discuss software and techniques that can meet the challenges required to address its present inadequacies. Presenters from industry will discuss their experiences in deploying and enhancing existing uncertainty quantification techniques in real-world contexts.
The day will conclude with the 2019 Darcy lecture. This will be presented by John Doherty. This lecture addresses the role of modelling in supporting environmental decisions and the extent to which existing guidelines enhance or impede this role.
Who should attend?
The workshop provides a unique opportunity for modellers, and those who rely on models, to hear from presenters who are at the cutting edge of uncertainty quantification. It will provide unique insights into existing methods and address current inadequacies and difficulties in using state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification software.
Venue, Times and Cost
Workshop attendance is free. The workshop will be held in the Common Room, University House - 1 Balmain Crescent, Acton ACT 2601
Time: Registrations open 8:30 am. Workshop 9.00 am – 4:30 pm on Monday 22nd July.
Seminar: The Darcy Lecture will be presented from 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm.
Registration: Please register your attendance for both events via the NCGRT website. Darcy/Workshop (Individual event registrations apply).
A new decision-support modelling initiative to be undertaken by the NCGRT in consultation with partners from industry, government, and universities, will commence shortly. Its purpose is to explore ways in which modelling can be put to better use in managing water and addressing water-related issues. Industry partners include BHP and Rio Tinto.
The initiative's mission is to promote, facilitate and support the improved use of models in groundwater management, regulation and decision-making. This will be achieved through: